Alarm Bells For Labour, But No Death Knell

Whilst it now seems likely that the polling bounce achieved by the Liberal Democrats since the first televised leaders’ debate is more than simply a flash-in-the-pan, the exact consequences what is anticipated to be a strong showing on May 6th are still something of an unknown. Nevertheless, many in the media – particularly in the Tory press - have been quick to foresee a variety of exciting post-May 7th scenarios with far reaching implications. Take Rachel Sylvester writing in this morning’s Times for example. Here the Labour Party is a spent political force staring down the barrel of electoral extinction. The apocalyptic overtones will be familiar to Tory voters with slightly longer memories than Ms Sylvester, having had to endure similar predictions for their party after the 1997 landslide. Now as then, it is best to treat these oracles with a modicum of caution.

To be fair to Ms Sylvester, she does acknowledge the similarities to 1997 herself, but argues that the rise of the Lib Dems as a challenger to Labour’s ‘progressive’ mantle means that these circumstances are exceptional. Whilst the underlying logic of this argument is sound, it is nevertheless something of a conceit that disguises a worrying reality for the Conservatives and their cheerleaders. 1983 and even 1918 have been bandied around as historic comparisons for the low-water mark of Labour’s share of the popular vote, but what has slipped by almost unnoticed is the fact that on current polling, the Tories are struggling to match their vote share to the notional 2005 result of 32.3%. Whilst the Lib Dem surge has undoubtedly hit the Labour vote, the fact that the Tories have been similarly dented underlines the fact that the centre-ground agenda is shifting more towards these ‘progressives’ than the Conservative Party would like.

That Labour would lose votes at this election was always inevitable. History shows that government has a corrosive effect on a party’s popularity over time, as the electorate hungers for fresh faces and new ideas. The fact that the last two Conservative and Labour administrations have survived so long owes as much to the Opposition veering towards their respective ideological fringes as it does to any enduring admiration for the government. Where a credible opposition has been offered, it has done well. The fact that Mr Cameron has successfully navigated his party back towards the political centre ground, and yet may still find himself barred from Downing Street proves that this election is as much of a watershed for the Conservatives as it is for either the Lib Dems or Labour.

Herein lies another important distinction between Labour’s present predicament and any worrying precedents set in 1997 and 1983. Firstly the shift in boundaries and Labour support since 1983 will mean that even if the share of the vote is comparable this time around, Labour will see enough MPs returned to Westminster to form an effective Opposition, if not a minority of coalition government. This is not to be sniffed at, even if it falls short of Labours target. Privately certain Labour MPs have been briefing that this may not be a bad election to lose, with the threat of a high budget deficit, energy shortages and ever more pressing environmental concerns likely to give the next Opposition plenty of ammunition. Secondly, it is testament to the ideological shift achieved by Blair that the MPs that are elected to the Labour benches are likely to come from the party’s moderate centre rather than its more extreme wings. This is in marked contrast to the fate suffered by the Tories in 1997, where the stripping of its marginal seats exposed a hardened Thatcherite core to the party. Consequently, whilst the Tories went through a series of right-leaning leaders under Hague, IDS and Howard, Labour can expect to find itself under the direction of a more centrist commander. That the ‘leftist’ candidate for the leadership – Jon Cruddas – earned his political spurs as deputy political secretary to Tony Blair shows just how far the party has come in making the centre ground its own. This is not something that can necessarily be said for the Tories. Whilst Cameron has worked hard to usher more moderate candidates into safe seats, there remains a lively right-wing on the Conservative back benches, and the inquest into the Cameron experiment should the Tories find themselves once again in Opposition is sure to be fierce.

Another worry that will be furrowing Tory brows at the moment will be the spectre of electoral reform. Nick Clegg has done well to bring this issue to the fore in the past week, to the extent that he now seems to be extracting concessions from both the other leaders with some regularity. Whilst David Cameron has done his best to mount a defence of FPTP, his refusal to rule out electoral reform suggests that some form of change – likely AV – may be on the table. Whilst this in itself would go some distance to undermining many traditional Conservative justifications of FPTP, more worrying for Tories will be the possibility that the reform may go even further. If a deal is struck between a third-placed labour and the Lib Dems to form the first coalition government since 1974, then a referendum on AV is unlikely to placate those who, like Clegg, take umbrage at a system that amplifies Labour’s vote share to quite such a degree. Let us not forget that under AV Labour would have actually won an even bigger majority in 2005. The Lib Dems' preferred electoral system – STV – may yet come up for discussion if the Labour Party feels the need legitimise its continuance in government. Whilst STV would, on the notional 2005 results, actually dent the Tory vote to a lesser extent that AV, it will worry Tories, as it makes it much harder for the party to overcome the ‘progressive’ Labour, Lib Dem and Green bloc that will benefit from the reform.

So whilst the current polling should be ringing alarm bells in Labour’s Victoria Street headquarters, and should invigorate what has been a flat Labour campaign thus far, it should not yet be seen as the death knell for the party. Whereas the readiness of Tory commentators to read the polling evidence in this light is, in the context of an election campaign, entirely understandable, Conservatives should not feel immune to the fallout of the Lib Dem squeeze. If anything, the implications for them could be even more dire.