This Brave New World

If ever proof were needed for Harold Wilson’s famous adage that ‘a week is a long time in politics’, surely we have been given it by the lorry-load since last Thursday. Indeed it now seems more appropriate to note that 90 minutes is a long time in politics. The energy, unpredictability and sheer bloody excitement that has been leant to the campaign trail in the wake of Nick Clegg’s meteoric rise - afforded by the first ever televised leaders’ debate – has had politicians and commentators alike scrabbling for ‘meaning’, whilst a torrent of lazy volcano metaphors fly from the pen’s of the lobby press pack.

But how do we analyse this apparent sea-change in British politics? Whilst it is untrue to claim as some have done that the Liberal Democrats have never topped the polls before – they did in fact lead some in the wake of their stunning capture of Brent East at a 2003 by-election – it has certainly never happened this close to an election before. Couple this to an already very tight race, and we do indeed find ourselves in uncharted territory. So where to begin? Well we can start by being reasonably confident in asserting that the Lib Dems are not going to form a majority government. Indeed despite the fact that a number have polls placed them at the top of the pile, they are unlikely to get many more than 100 seats at best, and will remain in a fairly distant third. Looking through the list of Lib Dem targets, you notice that the truly marginal seats are rather thin on the ground. The number of seats requiring a swing of less than 5% for a Lib Dem gain it is just 32, which compares to 87 for the Tories and even 50 for Labour. But that doesn’t mean that this ‘surge’ (as it is now uniformly known) is insignificant, even under our archaic voting system. In particular it will dent Tory hopes of making significant progress in the South West, something that was widely seen as a pre-requisite for a Conservative majority come May 7th. Labour strategists warn that this could be nullified by a number of losses to the ‘yellow peril’ in the north of England, but on the face of it at least, the current turn of events would seem to harm the Tories more than Labour. I say this with caution, as much depends on how these national polling trends (the uniform national swing) translate on the ground. It would seem to make sense, for instance, to say that the Lib Dems might receive less of a boost in the South West, where the party is already well established and their profile relatively high, than in other areas of the country. With that caveat duly noted, it is also true to say that only eight of the Lib Dems top 25 target seats are currently held by Labour, a statistic that will no doubt haunt CCHQ.

Despite criticisms from all quarters, Gordon Brown has actually played this new political field reasonably well. He has moved to present himself in a similar ‘progressive’ mould to Clegg in order to shore up any waverers in his party’s core vote, whilst allowing the Lib Dem pretender to steal Cameron’s mantle of ‘change’, dividing the vote for what is a tough crowd to win back to the government’s cause. The polls haven’t necessarily reflected this, with Labour falling back almost as much as the Tories have, but it might yet prove influential in shaping the electorate’s lasting impressions of the three men. Naturally this will infuriate Labour MPs in Lib Dem marginals, but given the concerted effort being made in the Tory press to tarnish Clegg’s reputation, there remains enough room for candidates to manoeuvre in these seats.

These attacks on Clegg and his party are themselves an interesting phenomenon, not least because of their timing. In the aftermath of the first few polling results after the first leaders’ debate, there was much speculation in the media about how long this Lib Dem ‘bounce’ would last. The fact that one week on the Lib Dems still find themselves in the mix is perhaps as surprising as the initial jump itself, and the current bout of mud-slinging in the right-wing press testament to the concern this is causing senior Tories. Whether these slurs stick or not – and there is already a successful Twitter campaign parodying the hysteria – I’m doubtful whether the Lib Dems can maintain their current lofty status. However it is worth noting that with postal ballots due to be sent out soon, now is not a bad time at all for the party to find itself en vogue.

The reason for my doubts is the remaining two televised debates: that which giveth doth also taketh away, to paraphrase one best-seller. Brown and Cameron will no doubt have learned the lessons from last week, and we can be sure that all questioners will now be addressed by name, whilst responses will be delivered to the camera. Clegg will also find himself under much greater scrutiny not just from his two adversaries, but also the viewing public, with whom his novelty will have waned in a week of wall-to-wall press coverage. And Lib Dem policies on foreign affairs – the subject of tonight’s debate – are hardly populist tub-thumpers. Greater EU integration, any one? Unilateral nuclear disarmament, perhaps? Clegg will have to be at his best to prevent a tabloid bloodbath. The economy debate on the 29th will of course allow him to play the ‘Vince’ card, until recently the Lib Dems’ trump. But the danger here is that they’ll appear too close to Labour on policy, allowing Cameron to play the ‘outsider’. That would be a disaster for Clegg with polling day only a week away.

So whilst the current volatility makes predicting the make up of the next Parliament something of a folly, pundits do seem to be agreed that as the polls stand, we’re heading into hung parliament territory. This throws up yet more intrigue. When the campaign kicked off, there was something approaching a consensus on the Lib Dem and Labour benches backing a referendum on the adoption of the Alternative Vote electoral system, although this was widely seen as a ‘first step’ on the reform path by Lib Dems rather than an end in itself. But if Labour do remain the largest party in the Commons on a share of the vote in line with their current third position, will the Lib Dems sense their moment to push through a more radical proposal for their preferred Single Transferable Vote? This could have absolutely monumental repercussions for the Conservatives, who have historically benefited from a less divided vote in the centre-right. Could the advent of Cameron, who was until last week the saviour of the modern Tories, actually be the party’s swan song as the ‘natural party of government’?

All of these questions will become clear in 14 days time. But with so much still up in the air, a week in politics suddenly feels like no time at all.