"Bigotgate": Some Initial Toughts

Three weeks in to the general election campaign and we finally have an incident worthy of the name ‘gaffe’. The cheers from the news channels are audible from here. Gordon Brown, safely ensconced in his getaway car, has been caught calling a voter who confronted him during a walkabout a “bigoted woman”, only to then realise his Sky TV microphone was still on, and his comments were being recorded by salivating producers in Wapping. As is customary, the incident must hitherto be appended with a ‘-gate’ suffix. ‘Bigotgate’ gets my vote. (The irony here of course is that whilst the original Watergate scandal was precipitated by a premier hiding recordings unbeknownst to others, here the politician is being recorded without his knowledge. It’s meta).

What impact, if any, will this have a week tomorrow? Well Labour can anticipate some awkward viewing in the evening news broadcasts for sure, but I doubt that this will leave a lasting impression.

Firstly the timing is very fortunate for Labour. Friday’s papers and tomorrow’s broadcast coverage will be dominated by the final leaders’ debate, which should stop any lasting fallout from the incident gaining a wider airing. The rules of the debate don’t allow for it to become an issue of discussion, and it would be risky for either Clegg or Cameron to score points with any swipes at Brown on the subject, as analysis of the debates so far has shown this to be a major turn-off for viewers. It’s been noticeable that both the Tories and Lib Dems have both been muted in their musings on the gaffe, which would suggest that they recognise the need not to be seen to ‘bully’ Brown.

Labour has also responded very well to the slip-up. Brown was quick to apologise on air, and the party line portraying Brown as ‘letting off steam’ is a good one. It’s obviously not the way the party would have like to do it, but it does allow them to show Brown in a more ‘human’ light. Some commentators have suggested that Brown may even benefit from the incident, much as he emerged from attacks on his letter-writing and ‘bullying’ left him strengthened. I think this might be stretching things a little: most people have seen enough of the PM to have already formed an opinion one way or another, and it seems likely to me that voters will use either the comments or Brown’s displays of contrition to reinforce their existing position. Images of Brown with his head in his hands on the Jeremy Vine show can only help to raise some sympathy for the PM, however.

I think a more dispassionate analysis of the whole incident will also help Brown to recover. Whilst it is undoubtedly a mistake, I suspect that in the cold light of day Labour advisers will admit that it could have been a lot worse. Brown didn’t swear, fly off the handle or attack the lady concerned on a personal level. It will be possible for the party to spin the incident as the PM displaying his passion for his immigration policies, and Ms Duffy’s use of phrases such as “I know you can’t attack immigrants, but…” are hardly the subtlest of dog-whistles. I actually suspect any lasting damage will stem from his attempts to blame “Sue” [Nye, Brown’s adviser] for the encounter. This seems to show Brown as incapable of taking responsibility for his own campaign. The irony is that the PM actually handled the incident reasonably well, and really shouldn’t have perceived a threat in Ms Duffy’s jibes (“all these eastern Europeans – where are they coming from?” being a rather hilarious case in point). Perhaps the Labour hierarchy will be regretting the decision not to blood their prize-fighter on the soap box earlier in the campaign: these sort of encounters really should be bread-and-butter to most seasoned campaigners.